2021 Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 at Martinsville odds, picks and prediction

The NASCAR Cup Series is at Martinsville Speedway for the Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500 Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET. Below we analyze the 2021 Blue-Emu Maximum Relief 500 odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and predictions based on the odds from BetMGM Sportsbook.

2021 Blue-Emu Maximum Pain Relief 500: What you need to know

Odds courtesy of BetMGM ; access USA TODAY Sports' betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

The NASCAR Cup Series is back at the venerable Martinsville Speedway, with Hendrick Motorsports driver Chase Elliott as the defending champ with checkers in the fall race in the playoffs Nov. 1.

• Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin enters with five victories at Martinsville, the active leader in wins at the track. He also leads the pack with 1,608 laps led with 15 of his 30 career runs resulting in finishes of fifth place or better.
• Penske Racing's Brad Keselowski is second among all active drivers with an Average-Finish Position (AFP) of 10.18 in his 22 career starts, winning twice with 11 finishes of fifth or better. He has also led 891 laps.
• JGR's Martin Truex Jr. has two wins in the past three starts at Martinsville, and he enters with an AFP of 17.0 in 30 career starts at the track. He has finished 10th or better in 13 of his outings, leading 987 laps.
• Elliott's race last season was the first by a Chevrolet since Oct. 20, 2016, when Jimmie Johnson picked up the win. Since that race, Toyota has three victories and Ford has four wins.

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Who is going to win the 2021 Blue-Emu Pain Relief 500?

TRUEX JR. ( +400) is the chalk, and again, he has two wins in the past three starts at the paper clip in Martinsville.

MTJ finished 22nd in the fall race in the playoffs in Nov. 2020, snapping a stretch of six straight races finished eighth or better, including five finishes of fourth or higher.

HAMLIN (+500) has been the gold standard at the historic track, as the Virginia native seems to always race well in his home state. The No. 11 was 11th in last fall's race, and he was 24th in the spring. While his overall numbers are great at the track, he has had some stinkers in recent years, so be careful.

JGR's KYLE BUSCH (+1200) is a tremendous value at this price. He was ninth last season, and 14th and 19th in the previous two stops at the track; however, that comes on the heels of a nine-race stretch finishing fifth or higher since the fall race in 2015. That includes wins in the spring race of 2016, and the fall run in 2017.

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2021 Blue-Emu Pain Relief 500long-shot bets

MATT DIBENEDETTO (+6500) is a great value, as he looks for his first Cup victory. Hey, it's been a season of firsts, so don't write him off. He was 10th in the fall race in Martinsville last November, and he was seventh in last spring's race. An AFP of 8.5 certainly raises some eyebrows. DIBENEDETTO (+170) is a solid play as a TOP 10 pick, too, at plus-money.

RYAN NEWMAN (+8000) has a win, and he has a 14.82 AFP in 38 career starts at Martinsville. The AFP is seventh among all active drivers, so a light play on Newman could be a big return with a win. At +210, he has a better chance to cash with a TOP 10 finish.

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