Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates odds, picks and prediction

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Sportsbook Wire

The Chicago Cubs (4-3) and Pittsburgh Pirates (1-6) continue their weekend series at PNC Park with a 6:35 p.m. ET tilt Saturday. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Cubs vs. Pirates odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Zach Davies is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs. Last year, Davies went 7-4 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9 in 69 1/3 IP over 12 starts. He allowed two runs to these Pirates in a 5-2/3-inning start against Pittsburgh on April 4. Pittsburgh bats own a .705 OPS, .136 isolated power against the veteran righty. The Pirates have a left-leaning lineup, but Davies handles opposite-hand bats better than most right-handed starters.

RHP Mitch Keller is expected to start for the Pirates. Keller made five starts in 2020, going 1-1 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 6.7 K/9, and 7.5 BB/9 in 21 2/3 IP. Chicago drew four walks and smacked a home run against Keller in collecting three runs in three innings April 4.

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Cubs at Pirates odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cubs -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Pirates +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cubs -1.5 (-105) | Pirates +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Cubs 4, Pirates 3

Money line (ML)

The Cubs took Thursday's series opener, 4-2 (Friday was a built-in off day after what marked Pittsburgh's home opener). The Pirates played Chicago tough a year ago, losing six of 10 games and being outscored by just four runs (38-34) along the way.

Keller exhibited solid velocity in his debut. He's yielded an .868 OPS over his career but a mere .702 figure in home games.

The Pirates are a lean in this one; consider holding out for a Pittsburgh +140 tag.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Better relative value on the home lean here can be found with the PIRATES +1.5 (-115) action. The game has a wind-in Under lean with two rested bullpens at the ready.

Over/Under (O/U)

The bullpens figure into this call, but there is perhaps too much early season static to overcome. Chicago's pen has been outstanding (2.39 ERA, 2.87 expected ERA). Cubs relievers have fanned 13.3 batters per nine. Pittsburgh's pen has been better than its 6.67 surface ERA. The Bucs have been undone by a high rate of fly balls and those fly balls leaving the yard.

A 13-mile-an-hour breeze, in from right field, is in the weather forecast, and that makes the Under a lean. Consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 8.5 (-105) or holding out for a 9 for better leverage.

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